We calculus aficionados have long protested that statistics is bullshit. However, our proclaims have always been regarded as simply elitist and narcissistic. The stat buffs have always viewed the calc lovers as nefarious in both attitude and demeanor. But this is going to all change. I am going to settle the score once and for all. Tune in my vivacious readers, get comfortable and take a deep breath: I’m going to take you for a mathematical adventure.

Personal Interest

Due to a series of unfortunate events and four years after high school calculus, I find myself taking Probabilities & Statistics (Math 67) here at UC Irvine. Wha wha, cry me a river — big deal — but how is this all related you ask? Well, it’s pretty simple actually — I will attempt to demonstrate why statistics is pretty much bullshit and can even be misleading to the masses. Statistics is not only a discipline which has a long history of discouraging betting and gambling but consequently through its biblical teachings of odds and probabilities has almost single handedly destroyed the Vegas Dream. Anything which discourages our dirty, filthy and lowlife right of Vegas culture should be abolished. That is my personal standing on the matter. If you disagree, then well, we might have a problem here.

A Proof by Example

They say fight fire with fire. And alas, here it is:

Let’s assume there’s a population P and a new disease D. Wait, wait come back — before you run away from this entry because I have desecrated it with some mathematics — I want you to be well aware that I’m not going to make you do any math; you just have to read and follow the logic. Simple as that. Okay, so now that you’re a little more comfortable, let’s continue. Where we were? Oh right, fighting fire with fire:

Our Fuel:
Let’s assume that scientists and researchers have developed a new test to see if you are infected by a new disease. Unfortunately, the test results are not perfect (they never are) but close. So let’s say that the test is 99% accurate. That looks like some good odds, right? And let’s say this disease is very rare such that only 0.01% (i.e. 0.0001) of the population is actually infected. And for simpleton’s sake, let’s say our population is a nice round number like 100,000,000 people. So, let’s chalk up our variables…

Our Lighter:
P = 100,000,000 (our total population size)
D = 0.0001 (percentage of population who is actually infected)

Our Ignition:
Now, the numbers game: this means that 10,000 people have the disease and that 99,990,000 do not. Makes sense so far. Of the 10,000 people who have the disease who take the test 9,900 will test positive and 100 will test negative (i.e. the test is 99% accurate). Similarly, this means of the 99,900,000 who do not have the disease, 999,900 will test positive and 98,990,100 will test negative.

So of the 9,900 + 999,900 = 1,009,800 people who test positive, only 9,900 (or 0.98%) actually have it. And of the 100 + 98,990,100 = 98,990,200 who test negative, 100 (or 0.0001%) actually have it.

Our Ashes:
What does this mean? It means that even though the tests are 99% accurate, if you test positive you still have less than a 1% chance of actually being infected. Yes, the calculations are correct and no, I am not trying to fool you with some fuzzy math. It’s just that statistics is bullshit.

A Mature Conclusion

Suckers. We got you good. You suck!

Acknowledgments & Shout outs

This dissertation could not have been possible without my “FUCK STATS” comrade, Nicole. Her undying support and violent encouragement to destroy all things stats really paved the way for this entry and public involvement. You my girl, Nicole!

Modern Day Capitalism

Nicole and I have already begun designing and printing “FUCK STATS” t-shirts for all ages and sizes. What better gift to a newborn then the reassuring confidence to “FUCK STATS”? What better wedding gift to reaffirm the notion of “FUCK STATS” embroidered on an elegant cotton t-shirt to remind the bride and groom that 62% couples are infidel within the first 3 months of marriage with a 87% chance of death or divorce? What kinder thought than to surprise your significant other with our upcoming Valentine’s Day Special Edition “FUCK STATS” t-shirt to show your committed support to your relationship despite the statistical inevitability that 99.7% of relationships among youth end in bitter dispute with an even greater probability that’s it’s not you, it’s someone else.

Interested parties should inquire within. I personally intend on sporting my official “FUCK STATS” t-shirt and hoodie to my Probability & Statistics final. Look for me — I’m going to constantly raise my hand and ask obnoxious questions like if we’re allowed to phone a friend or use 50/50. It’s going to be a good quarter.

Adieu. Navid.

I am not really the sentimental type and hate to make my beloved readers cry, but today your little Navid has successfully earned his bachelor’s degree in Information & Computer Science from the University of California, Irvine.

And this is only the beginning.

Now, one can accuse the professors for their lack of ingenuity when it comes to creating problem sets but I think we need to realize that the professors themselves half the time don’t even know how to solve the problems they assign. However, they have a trusty old-worn down handbook where all the answers are instilled within. It’s much like the Fraternity’s Guide to Getting Laid which is often times depicted in such films as American Pie (1999) and Slackers (2002). I must have been in elementary school the first time I heard about the existence of this mythical book. The Book of All Questions and Answers I would call it. It was much discussed but only ever seen “by a friend of a friend.” It was a myth, a legend and folklore. However, today that book exists. And it’s called the Internet.

At first, I felt this was very unethical to find the exact answers to the questions online. However, after running it by a few people whom are much more ethical than I, the consensus was that this is public information and there is no hint of academic dishonesty. However, since this is my last quarter before I graduate and wanting to leave nothing to chance, I decided to dig around and find the academic dishonesty policies deployed at my university.

Although much of the policy simply discusses the basics of cheating (e.g. copying from someone during a test, stealing answer keys, having someone else take an exam for you, etc) — one section caught my eye:

Plagiarism is intellectual theft. It means use of the intellectual creations of another without proper attribution. Plagiarism may take two main forms, which are clearly related:

1. To steal or pass off as one’s own the ideas or words, images, or other creative works of another.
2. To use a creative production without crediting the source, even if only minimal information is available to identify it for citation.

Credit must be given for every direct quotation, for paraphrasing or summarizing a work (in whole, or in part, in one’s own words), and for information which is not common knowledge.

So, is finding answers to the same questions from other universities and other professors plagiarism? Given that definition, aren’t the professors themselves facilitating academic dishonesty? Unless they actually own the copyrighted material where the originating problem sets are generated, it appears that they are. What are your thoughts on this hypothetical predicament?

Adieu. Navid.

We make our final presentations for the Extreme Computing Competition June 3rd. Wish us luck.

Adieu. Navid.

ICS 132:  Fri, Mar 18      8:00 a.m. - 10:00 a.m.
ICS 143: Tues, Mar 22      8:00 a.m. - 10:00 a.m.
ICS 104: Tues, Mar 22      4:00 p.m. - 6:00 p.m.
Math 67:  Wed, Mar 23      8:00 a.m. - 10:00 a.m.
ICS 125: Thur, Mar 24      8:00 a.m. - 10:00 a.m.

That’s right. I have four finals that ALL start at 8am. wtf, mate? Oh well, I am that much closer to my Bachelors Degree in Information & Computer Science.

Adieu. Navid.

Congratulations! You have made it through the first round of extreme computing.

As a reminder, Preliminary Product Specifications are due Feb 24 by midnight. There will be no further elimination rounds. All the teams that made it through phase one will compete for the first three places and the best demo prize.

If you have questions about the competition, contact me directly or by email.

Good luck!

Adieu. Navid.

Dear Navid:

It is my pleasure to inform you that the Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program (UROP) Faculty Advisory Board has recommended your appointment as a UROP Fellow at UCI for the 2004-2005 academic year. We are awarding $1800 in support of your proposed research project, “UCI 2005 DARPA Grand Challenge Team – Sensor Fusion & Obstacle Detection,” under the supervision of Professor Ian Harris.

Funds for this project are being transferred to the following account/fund number: ######-####. This information and other evaluative comments that might have been provided by the UROP Faculty Advisory Board on your proposal can be accessed through the UROP website.

These funds are to be used according to the submitted itemized budget, including such items as the purchase of materials and supplies, research-related travel, and the costs incurred in the presentation of research or creative activities. The funds may not support salaries or stipends and must be expended by June 30, 2005.

You are required to present your research results and findings at the UCI Undergraduate Research Symposium scheduled for May 14, 2005. In addition, you are invited to submit a research paper for possible publication in The UCI Undergraduate Research Journal. Papers will be accepted during the Spring Quarter 2005. Guidelines will be available at that time.

Please be reminded that students must adhere to UCI’s research conduct rules dealing with health and environmental issues, research ethics, use of humans as experimental subjects, care of laboratory animals, and patents and copyrights.

We hope you will benefit from undertaking this research project. If you have any questions about your award or your presentation at the Symposium, please do not hesitate to contact the UROP Office at (949) 824-4189 or e-mail: urop@uci.edu. There were many fine proposals relative to the amount of funding available. We are pleased to support faculty-mentored undergraduate research at UCI, and I am delighted that your project was recommended for funding. Congratulations!

Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program

Although, I must confess, that this would not have been possible without the insanely persuasive (read: manipulative) efforts and determination of Phil. You continuously pad my résumé very nicely. I am much obliged.

Adieu. Navid.

In other news, I finally started on my first screenplay… or novel. I’m not entire sure which yet but I have a rough story articulated into a draft. I’ll discuss more details later. Wish me luck.

Adieu. Navid.

I know I’ll regret saying this sometime, but I can’t wait when my life is simply WORK + LIFE… with no SCHOOL variable. I guess it just seems odd (and exciting to me) since I’ve been going to school for what, 15 years, constantly now? Jesus. I mean, that means when I leave work, I’m done for the day… I can do whatever I want! I mean, no homework to worry about, no research project deadlines looming, no upcoming exams, no nothing. Just work. Oh, and bills, but I pay that stuff now anyway.. so they cancel out.

I wonder how things will be in a couple of years. It feels like everything is going to change. I kind of don’t want it to change, but I know it will. I know it will probably be for the best, and I know I’m probably taking most of the it granted right now, but I just want to keep that school atmosphere without the school portion of it. That makes sense, Right?

Ahhh… I guess we’ll find out what life has in store for me and for you.

Adieu. Navid.

On the bright side, my work schedule is now on part-time basis… which feels so much more succint. I worked 40 hours a week during the summer and during the school year I’m working an approximate 26.5 hours a week.. which is still very high for someone who goes to school full time; but I must say, it’s still a very comfortable drop from 40.

For the Fall Quarter of 2003, I have 3 classes and one research project. My weekly ‘academic’ schedule looks like this:

M 1pm MSTB 120 (Math Lecture)
2pm ELH 100 (ICS Lecture)
3pm PSLH 100 (Physics Lecture)
4pm MSTB 122 (ICS Discussion)

T 8am PSCB 140 (Math Discussion)
9am RH 108 (Physics Discussion)

W 11am CS/E 310 (Research Project)
1pm MSTB 120 (Math Lecture)
2pm ELH 100 (ICS Lecture)
3pm PSLH 100 (Physics Lecture)

T 8am PSCB 140 (Math Discussion)

F 1pm MSTB 120 (Math Lecture)
2pm ELH 100 (ICS Lecture)
3pm PSLH 100 (Physics Lecture)

Now, my schedule is and will continue to be ‘science’ based since I have already completed all my breadth requirements. School keeps me busy a little, mainly with homework and tedious coding projects. Which reminds me that I need to finish a bunch of personal coding items, one of which, is directly relating to the voting issue on the RD Forum. I just don’t have the time yet!! Though, I hope as things become more streamlined, I’ll have the opportunity to finish them.

Sorry for this lame post, but I’ll post something comment worthy as soon as I can.

Adieu. Navid.